MODEL EVIDENCE REGISTER / V3.1

What is known, assumed, calculated and still required

Executive view of the numerical model. It is a navigation aid, not a substitute for the underlying workbook.

Scope and status

Current pilotExtreme heat onlyVerified input

BoundaryDelhi NCR / March to June / 10,000 ridersVerified input

DecisionProceed with controlled pilot validationPending validation

RainfallOutside current cover, price and modelPending validation

Model reference: PERIL_SCOPE | INPUTS | PILOT_DASHBOARD

Pricing and benefit outputs

Output	Value	Evidence status
Premium before GST	₹700	Formula-linked output
Working GST per rider	₹126	Formula-linked output
Indicative invoice per rider	₹826	Formula-linked output
Base premium pool	₹70.00 lakh	Formula-linked output
Indicative insurance invoice	₹82.60 lakh	Formula-linked output
Benefits	₹250 / ₹500 / ₹750	Verified input
Seasonal cap	₹2,000	Verified input

Model reference: PRICING | SLIDE_OUTPUTS OUT-01, OUT-02 and OUT-03

Sensitivities

Case	Claims ratio
Mild	35.7%
Central	71.4%
Severe	142.9%

Claim-cost sensitivities, not probability forecasts. GST is excluded from the denominator.

Model reference: SCENARIO_ANALYSIS | SLIDE_OUTPUTS OUT-04

Trigger-test summary

9 of 9 deterministic workbook cases pass their expected outcome.

Includes no trigger, three benefit tiers, seasonal-cap constraint, duplicate, inactive cover, incomplete-data review and stopped-work protection.

Simulated demonstration data

Model reference: TRIGGER_ENGINE

Seasonal-cap examples

₹1,750 prior benefit+₹750 extreme tier→₹250 final benefit₹2,000 cap reached

The payment rule is the lower of the applicable tier and remaining seasonal cap after eligibility and duplicate checks pass.

Model reference: TRIGGER_ENGINE TC-05

Basis-risk framework

False negatives, false positives, geographic mismatch, data outages, payout proportionality and complaints will be measured during the controlled pilot. No unsupported rate is reported now.

Available only after pilot

Model reference: BASIS_RISK

Assumption register

Central seasonal claim cost: ₹500Requires Delhi NCR historical calibration
Combined loading: ₹200Operations, data, payments, uncertainty and capital; no unsupported split
GST rate: 18% working assumptionSubject to insurer and tax confirmation
Covered population: 10,000 ridersControlled one-city pilot boundary

Model reference: ASSUMPTION_REGISTER

Source register

SRC-01: Internal pilot modelWorking product, trigger and pricing structure
SRC-02: Gujarat seasonal referenceLower non-identical market cross-check
SRC-03 / SRC-09: Broader HERA programme referenceUpper non-identical market cross-check
Platform-reported 2025 earnings: ₹102 per logged-in hourBenefit reasonableness only; not used to price premium

Model reference: SOURCE_LOG

Requirements before binding

Historical calibration and final trigger designPending validation
Insurer quotation and approved wordingPending validation
Platform rider-data agreementPending validation
Legal, tax and funding reviewPending validation
Implementation and integration quotationsPending validation
Reinsurance assessment if requiredPending validation
Actual basis-risk and rider-outcome resultsAvailable only after pilot

DecisionProceed with controlled pilot validation

Do not bind or scale until the applicable requirements are completed.

Model reference: SLIDE_OUTPUTS OUT-07 and OUT-08 | ASSUMPTION_REGISTER